It make you wonder if we're heading for another Carrington Event.
What was the Carrington Event you ask? Well...check out this great discussion by Rick Donaldson, N0NJY of Ham Radio for Preppers:
In the quiet predawn hours of September 1, 1859, the Sun unleashed a fury that reshaped the night sky into a canvas of apocalyptic splendor. A colossal coronal mass ejection (CME), observed by astronomer Richard Carrington, hurled a plasma storm toward Earth, compressing our planet’s magnetic shield and igniting auroras so vivid they bathed the tropics in crimson light. Telegraph operators across continents recoiled as their machines sparked wildly, igniting fires and transmitting phantom messages without batteries—the Sun’s invisible hand seizing control of humanity’s nascent electrical networks. In an era of horse-drawn carriages and candlelit homes, this Carrington Event was a mere spectacle, a curiosity etched in newspapers and diaries. Yet, it stands as a stark warning from history: a natural phenomenon capable of bridging the void of space to disrupt civilization’s fragile threads.
Fast-forward to our hyper-connected 2026 world, where satellites orbit like guardian angels, power grids pulse with the lifeblood of economies, and digital networks bind billions in instantaneous communion. Imagine a Carrington-scale CME striking today—its charged particles cascading through our atmosphere, inducing currents that overload transformers and plunge vast regions into darkness. GPS constellations would falter, stranding flights mid-air and halting financial markets mid-transaction; undersea cables might fry, severing the internet’s global spine and isolating societies in informational silos. Water systems, fuel pumps, and hospitals would grind to a halt, food supplies spoiling in unpowered warehouses as chaos ripples outward. Economic models from sources like the National Academies of Sciences estimate trillions in losses, with recovery spanning years amid geopolitical tensions and mass unrest.[1] This isn’t dystopian fiction; it’s a probabilistic peril, with solar cycles like our current one amplifying the risk, reminding us that our technological triumphs rest on a cosmic knife’s edge.
The annals of solar history reveal this threat is no anomaly. From ancient Miyake events in Japan etched in tree rings and ice cores—radiation spikes dwarfing modern storms—to near-misses like the 2012 CME that grazed Earth by mere days, super solar storms recur with unsettling frequency. As we bask in the glow of smartphones and smart cities, these celestial tempests underscore our vulnerability, urging a reevaluation of resilience in an age of interdependence. What follows is a deeper exploration of this existential hazard, drawing from scientific extrapolations and historical precedents to illuminate the shadows of potential catastrophe.
Large and visible solar storm events that have occurred over the past few weeks. This week, we have an on-going event. About a month ago, a prior event was visible over most of the USA as Aurora.
The Carrington Event: A Historical Benchmark for Modern Catastrophe
The Carrington Event of 1859 remains the most powerful geomagnetic storm on record, triggered by a massive coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun. Observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington, it unleashed a barrage of charged particles that interacted with Earth’s magnetosphere, inducing powerful electrical currents in telegraph lines across Europe and North America. Operators reported sparks flying from equipment, fires igniting in stations, and even the ability to transmit messages without batteries due to induced voltages. Auroras were visible as far south as the Caribbean, disrupting compasses and illuminating the night sky. While the societal impact was limited in a pre-electric era, this event provides a critical extrapolation point for assessing vulnerabilities in our technology-saturated world today.[2]
A CME of similar magnitude—estimated to recur every 100-200 years based on statistical models—would generate geomagnetic disturbances far more severe than those in 1859, given the exponential growth in infrastructure dependency. Such an event could mimic the effects of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP), though naturally induced rather than anthropogenic. EMP-like effects arise from the storm’s E3 phase, where slow-varying geomagnetic fields induce quasi-DC currents in long conductors like power lines, pipelines, and railways. In a worst-case scenario, where the CME strikes Earth head-on during a period of heightened solar activity (such as the current Solar Cycle 25, peaking around 2025-2026), the impacts could cascade across global systems, potentially lasting weeks to years and costing trillions in economic damage. Below, I outline a plausible worst-case extrapolation, drawing from scientific assessments and simulations.[3]
Immediate Onset: Geomagnetic Storm Arrival and Initial Disruptions (Hours 1-24)
Upon the CME’s plasma cloud enveloping Earth—typically 18-36 hours after solar eruption, with limited warning from space weather monitoring—a rapid compression of the magnetosphere would trigger widespread satellite anomalies. Simulations from the European Space Agency (ESA) indicate that no orbiting spacecraft’s safety could be guaranteed, with potential for total fleet wipeout in extreme cases. High-energy particles would bombard satellites, causing single-event upsets in electronics, electrostatic discharges, and accelerated aging from radiation doses. Up to 10% of satellites might experience outages lasting hours to days, but in a Carrington-scale event, losses could exceed 50%, crippling constellations like Starlink, GPS, and weather monitoring systems.[4] GPS signals, essential for navigation, timing in financial transactions, and cellular networks, could degrade or fail entirely, leading to synchronized blackouts in dependent systems.[1]
On the ground, induced currents would surge through power grids. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) models suggest that a Carrington-level storm could damage high-voltage transformers across the Midwest and East Coast, where geology amplifies ground-induced currents. In the UK, similar modeling predicts failure of 6-13 supergrid transformers, causing localized blackouts for hours, with full repairs taking weeks to months due to global shortages in replacement parts.[5][6] Widespread outages might affect tens of millions, echoing the 1989 Quebec blackout but on a continental scale. Air traffic control could halt, with flights delayed or canceled due to navigation failures; high-frequency radio communications would black out for minutes to hours, impacting aviation and maritime operations.[5]
Escalating Cascade: Systemic Failures (Days 1-7)
As blackouts persist, interdependent systems would unravel. Without power, water treatment plants and pumping stations fail, leading to shortages within days. Fuel distribution relies on electric pumps and GPS-tracked logistics, so gasoline and diesel supplies could dwindle, stranding vehicles and emergency services. The internet, often overlooked in solar storm discussions, faces dual threats: satellite backhaul disruptions and damage to undersea fiber-optic cables from induced currents in repeaters. A 2021 study highlighted that transatlantic cables could experience voltage spikes sufficient to fry components, severing intercontinental connectivity and confining the web to fragmented regional networks.[7] Banking and stock exchanges, reliant on precise timing from GPS atomic clocks, might suspend operations, triggering economic paralysis.
In urban centers, hospitals on backup generators could manage short-term, but prolonged outages would strain fuel supplies and electronic medical records. Food supply chains, dependent on refrigerated transport and just-in-time delivery, risk spoilage; supermarkets might empty within 72 hours, exacerbating social unrest. A 2013 National Academies report estimated U.S. losses from a Carrington event at $0.6-2.6 trillion in the first year alone, with global figures scaling proportionally.[1] In colder seasons, heating failures could lead to hypothermia risks, while in hot climates, air conditioning loss might cause heat-related deaths.
Long-Term Recovery: Societal and Economic Repercussions (Weeks to Years)
Repairing the grid would be the bottleneck. High-voltage transformers, custom-built with lead times of 12-18 months, are vulnerable and scarce; a worst-case USGS scenario envisions multiple U.S. states offline for extended periods.[8] Satellite replacements could take years, delaying restoration of global communications. Economic ripple effects include halted manufacturing, disrupted trade, and insurance claims overwhelming markets. Socially, mass migrations from affected areas, breakdowns in law enforcement due to communication failures, and potential geopolitical tensions over resource scarcity could emerge.
Historical near-misses underscore the plausibility: The 2012 CME, comparable to Carrington, missed Earth by nine days; had it hit, recovery might still be ongoing.[9] Even rarer “Miyake events”—extreme storms every few millennia—could amplify damages, but Carrington serves as the “reasonable worst-case” benchmark.[1]
Mitigation and Preparedness Insights
While catastrophic, not all is doom: Space weather forecasting from agencies like NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center provides 1-3 days’ warning, allowing grid operators to isolate transformers or airlines to reroute flights.[8] Hardened infrastructure, such as Faraday cages for critical electronics and diversified satellite designs, offers resilience. However, global coordination lags; the U.S. National Space Weather Strategy emphasizes investment, but implementation varies.[10] For deeper reading, consult the Royal Academy of Engineering’s report on extreme space weather impacts (available at https://raeng.org.uk/media/lz2fs5ql/space_weather_full_report_final.pdf) or NASA’s historical analysis of the 2012 near-miss.[11]
This scenario extrapolates conservatively from Carrington’s parameters, assuming no compounding factors like simultaneous cyberattacks. In reality, human ingenuity could accelerate recovery, but the event’s inevitability—per expert consensus—demands proactive hardening of our technological backbone.
Footnotes
[2] https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/
[4] https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_weather/Space_weather_and_satellites
[6] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/space-weather-preparedness-strategy
[7] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021SW002895
[9] https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/
[11] https://raeng.org.uk/media/lz2fs5ql/space_weather_full_report_final.pdf
[13] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse
[14] https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/us-military-emp-attack
[15] https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1106&context=selectedworks
[16] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0030438723000212
[17] https://www.domesticpreparedness.com/commentary/electromagnetic-pulses-six-common-misconceptions
[20] https://www.aps.org/apsnews/2022/11/electromagnetic-pulse
[21] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Project_K_nuclear_tests
[24] https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Chronicles/apjemp.pdf
[28] https://medium.com/the-dock-on-the-bay/emp-weapons-dont-have-to-be-nuclear-5ba1e1614b05
[30] https://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
[32] https://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
[37] https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/07/08/starfish-prime-the-first-accidental-geomagnetic-storm
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